Will Cockroach Janata Party be able to harness the changing public mood?

I hope that by the time you read this column Sonam Wangchuk has ended his fast.

He is too good a person for us to lose.

 

But if you follow the social media commentary about Wangchuk and the protest he is a part of, you will notice two things. The first is that people seem more interested in stopping Wangchuk from further damaging his health because of the fast than they do in talking about his agenda. Given the regard that Wangchuk is held in I can understand the concern. But I suspect Wangchuk may have been happier if his agenda had made the headlines rather than his health.

 

   The second is that the primary demand from some of the protesters and those who support them is that Rahul Gandhi should speak out in their favour and perhaps visit Wangchuk. Perhaps Rahul will make some statement or go to join the protesters. Or perhaps the government will make some gesture in an effort to persuade Wangchuk to end his fast.

 

   Nevertheless I find this entire turn of events slightly mystifying. When the Cockroach Janata Party made its debut on social media, the response it evoked became a global news story. The general tone of the coverage was that something significant was happening in India. The mainstream opposition had failed to successfully oppose the government and so a spontaneous youth movement had sprung up. It could only grow in strength.

 

   May be. But the reality is that the movement’s supporters seem focussed on being endorsed by the same mainstream opposition they were supposed to become an alternative to.

 

   If India needs a Cockroach Janata Party because Rahul Gandhi has failed to hold Narendra Modi to account then why does the Cockroach Janata Party itself need Rahul Gandhi?

 

   Also, as far I can recall, one of the demands of the protesters was that the Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan should resign because of the mess our examination system was in. But you now hear protesters talking more about Rahul Gandhi’s absence than about Pradhan who continues to flourish in office. What happened to the need to reform the examination system?

 

   It may be unfair to judge the Cockroach Janata Party and its leaders at this early stage. Perhaps they lack the experience to exhibit the kind of focus a movement of this nature needs. And it’s entirely possible that as time goes on they will get better at this. But who can deny that something seems a bit off when a movement meant to harness the disillusionment of India’s youth seems to regard its primary objective as getting Rahul Gandhi to come and get Wangchuk to give up his fast? What happened to all that stuff about opposing the government, guys?

 

   One reason we are surprised by all this is that many of us believed that this round of protests would have the same effect as the India Against Corruption campaign. That movement was allegedly led by Anna Hazare but actually masterminded by Arvind Kejriwal who served as Hazare’s ventriloquist and used it as a stepping stone to become a politician with his own party.

 

   Though the BJP will never admit this openly, without the so-called Anna movement and Kejriwal’s cunning, Narendra Modi would never have swept the general election that followed. It was Kejriwal and his pals who finished off UPA 2 and created the public perception of Manmohan Singh as a joke figure who presided over a scam-ridden government.

 

"Given all this, no protest movement in the Modi era is ever going to have it as easy as the Anna movement did with UPA2."

   But times have changed. The Anna movement succeeded because of a combination of factors. The scam stuff stuck because it was coming from the CAG, a man who was supposed to have access to all the figures needed to keep a watch on the government. Because of the supposed credibility of the source, all kinds of nonsense about ‘presumptive loss’ was accepted as fact and even though many of the alleged scams (the 2G scam, the coal scam etc) turned out to be either made up or exaggerated (even the BJP government’s prosecutors were not able to make the charges stick in the Courts) they were responsible for destroying the reputation of the UPA.

 

   It helped the Anna movement also that this was the heyday of news TV and the shouting anchors. As each ‘scam’ unfolded the channels exploded with outrage. A succession of previously obscure panelists from the Anna gang (many of whom later went on to join or support the BJP) appeared on TV to denounce the UPAs corruption and Prashant Bhushan came to be regarded as the fount of all legal and constitutional wisdom.

 

   The UPA was already in trouble when the protests started. Sonia Gandhi was unwell and went abroad for treatment for long stretches. Manmohan Singh was not adept at political management and soon lost control of his cabinet. Nobody in his government understood social media and when he became the target of organised attacks he had no idea what was happening. As the protests mounted he was so appalled by the charges that he went into silent mode and failed to provide visible leadership.

 

   Given this set of circumstances it is not entirely surprising that the Anna movement polished off the government and left India longing for strong and visible leadership which Narendra Modi provided.

 

   It’s instructive to remember these particular circumstances to understand why it is so hard for this round of protests to have the same impact as the Anna movement.

 

   First of all, none of the organisers seem to have Arvind Kejriwal’s cunning and his grasp of strategy. Kejriwal kept the movement focused on a single issue: corruption. He hammered away at this day after day. When he had facts to buttress his case he still distorted and exaggerated them. When he did not have facts, he made them up anyway.

 

   Secondly the idea that an official figure like the CAG could hold press conferences to accuse the government of corruption now seems totally unbelievable. Such a CAG would not last for more than five minutes with this government. (Consider the speed at which the Vice President was despatched.)

 

   Thirdly the Rottweilers of the TV channels have turned into pussycats when it comes to discussing the government’s performance. And fewer people watch them away.

 

   Fourthly, despite the Cockroach Janata Party’s early success on social media, there is no doubt that the BJP has mastered this medium in a way that few other political parties in the world ever have.

 

   And finally: the big difference. Kejriwal and his colleagues went for Manmohan Singh when he was already weakened. Contrast that with Narendra Modi who continues to be so strong that he is still the most popular leader in India. And even those who don’t like him are scared of him.

 

   The Prime Minister has seen the effect the Anna movement had on UPA2. After all he was its primary beneficiary. He is never going to make the mistakes that Manmohan Singh made. He believes that bowing to pressure from protesters or the media makes him weak. He rarely accedes to demands from quarters he regards as hostile (the turnaround on the farm laws was a rare exception).

 

   Given all this, no protest movement in the Modi era is ever going to have it as easy as the Anna movement did with UPA2. It’s not even going to be able to get its message across because the media will play down its protests and its demands. And prominent people will be reluctant to say they support it.

 

   None of this to say that the Cockroach Janata Party is doomed. Most popular movements take time to capture the public imagination. And this movement has only just started. It will get over these early mistakes and as anti incumbency grows it could learn how to harness the changing public mood.

 

   But let’s not make the mistake of thinking that it will be another India Against Corruption. That was a different era. And this is a very different Prime Minister.