Parallax View: The one asset that this government has failed to properly exploit is youth

Unlike nearly everybody else I know or have read, I was not surprised by  Tuesday’s cabinet

reshuffle. Nor was I particularly disappointed.      There are two reasons for this. First of all, as the saying goes, those

who  exercise power are either structuralists or tinkerers. The only time in his  life that Manmonhan Singh has made a structural change in anything was in  1991, when he dismantled the license-quota-permit raj. I don’t wish to  detract from that considerable achievement --- one that the people of India  will always be grateful to him for --- but let’s not forget that it was made  in very special circumstances: India was bankrupt and these were the  conditions imposed on us by the IMF.

 

   For the rest of his career --- as a bureaucrat, as a politician and now as  Prime Minister --- Manmohan Singh has preferred incremental changes: a tiny  shift here, a slight readjustment there, etc. So I never believed that he  would perform the major surgery that same commentators were predicting and  transform the structure of his cabinet. The best we could hope for was some  tinkering --- and that’s what we got.

 

   As for my lack of disappointment, well, that follows from my belief that the  reshuffle was always going to be about the odd incremental change here or  there. The media wanted certain changes: SM Krishna out of the MEA, for  instance, and a new Civil Aviation Minister. Not only were they unlikely to  happen, but I’m not even convinced that the PM believed they were required  or desirable. Appoint an assertive Foreign Minister and Manmohan Singh’s own  role in foreign policy management (about all he seems interested in these  days) would be curtailed. And nobody wants the poisoned chalice that is the  Civil Aviation Ministry.

 

   So, judged by what we know of Manmohan Singh’s record (and Sonia Gandhi’s  essential cautiousness), I don’t think there is much reason for surprise or  disappointment.

 

   Yes, perhaps P Chidambaram could have become Foreign Minister. Perhaps  Jairam Ramesh could have moved to a more economically-oriented ministry  (commerce, for instance). Raj Babbar could have got the ministership he  wanted. Gurudas Kamat could have got Cabinet rank.

 

   But do you think it would have made much difference? Would it have helped  the government cope better with the problems it currently faces? Would its  performance have improved dramatically? Somehow, I doubt it.

 

   In my view, no reshuffle done by cautious people who would rather tinker  than transform would have made a difference. Finally, all these  reshuffles have amounted to nothing more  than musical chairs. Sometimes, when the music stops, the right people fail  to find their seats. But the others just rearrange themselves.

 

   So, what should the Prime Minister (and the Congress President) have done?

 

   In my view, they have now reached the stage where they have nothing left to  lose. Manmohan Singh will not be a three-time Prime Minister. These are his  last few years in office. On present performance --- and given the trends of  history --- it is extremely unlikely that the Congress will win in the next  election.

 

  Judging by the way things are going now, the government has lost  control of events. Each day it is buffeted by new events that it did not  foresee. Far from imposing its own agenda on the nation (not that it seems  to have one), the government spends its time fire-fighting --- each week  there is a new fire to put out; a new crisis to deal with.

 

   When things get to this stage, any government must look at its assets and  try and maximize their value. So far as I can tell, this government has  three assets.

 

   The first is Manmohan Singh’s own honesty and essential decency.  Unfortunately that counts for less and less in the present mood when people  say it is not enough to be honest yourself: where were you when the crooks  in your government were looting the country?

 

"But when the time comes to write the history of this government, this little  reshuffle might well be regarded as a key failed moment."

   The second is the economy. During the UPA’s first term, India’s  transformation from Third World basket case to emerging super-power was  completed. Some countries (Thailand, for instance) have economies that are  insulated against political instability. If India could have functioned in  that manner (as Italy has for many years) and continued to prosper and grow,  then the political crisis may have counted for less.

 

   But, in strictly economic terms, we are now heading for a period of  stagflation. The industrial growth figures for last month are dismal,  inflation is out of control and foreign investors are more and more  unwilling to commit serious sums of money to the development of our  infrastructure because of India’s political factors.

 

   So, if Manmohan‘s personal image and the government’s handling of the  economy have all ceased to work in this government’s favour, then what does  it have left?

 

   Some would say very little. But I think that there is a third asset that  this government has failed to properly exploit. That asset is youth.

 

   Whatever your views on the oldies in the ministry, there is no doubt that  the younger generation of Congress leaders (in Indian terms, ‘young’ means  about the same age as David Cameron or Ed Miliband) is energetic and  impressive. Put the Congress’s under-45 team against say, the BJP’s, and the  party suddenly begins to seem dynamic and ready to steer India into the 21st  Century.

 

   So, here’s what I think Manmohan Singh should have done. He should have  compulsorily retired many of the relatively useless oldies who occupy  Cabinet posts in his government. In their place, he should have promoted his  existing young ministers and inducted many more young guys (and girls) at  Minister of State level.

 

   Such ministers as Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jitin Prasad, Sachin Pilot, RPN  Singh and others have already proved that they are capable of functioning  effectively in government (when their Cabinet Ministers give them any work,  that is). They should all have been given senior responsibilities in the  Cabinet and as Ministers of State with Independent Charge.

 

   I think  they would have put some much-needed life into this government. But  even if you don’t agree with me, what you can’t dispute is this: they would  have been no worse than the present crop.

 

   So a youth strategy may or may not have worked --- though I think it would  have --- but the downside was zero. Nothing bad could have come of replacing  one lot of ineffectual oldies with younger, fresher faces.

 

   So, what didn’t the Congress leadership take this option? Why, after the  reshuffle is the average age of the Council of Ministers still 60?

 

   I have no idea.

 

   But when the time comes to write the history of this government, this little  reshuffle might well be regarded as a key failed moment.

 

   Manmohan Singh had the chance and the opportunity to appoint new, competent,  energetic ministers. He could have transformed his government’s image. He  could have empowered a new generation. And he could have bet on the future.

 

   Instead he was content to let the same old men shuffle around a little.

 

   What a pity!
 

 

Pic Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons